This is the fifth part of a series of posts where I examine what would happen if the PRC invaded Taiwan. For deep background, check out my book on Chinese military history, Walls of Men.
So far, we’ve been looking at the challenges confronting Communist China in a potential invasion of Taiwan. I’d now like to flip things and look at the difficulties the Taiwanese will have in defending their island.
Count America Out
All of the calculations to date have been predicated on the willingness of Taiwan’s government and a critical mass of its people to fight. My assumption is that the Taiwanese need not fight to the death to be successful because the obstacles in front of the People’s Liberation Army are many and daunting (and I will continue to add more). What is important is that they be willing to fight at all.
For decades China has sought ways to isolate and de-legitimize the government in Taipei. Without international support, Taiwan would have little chance of success. By becoming the world’s manufacturing powerhouse, China gained leverage over the global economy, and we saw this impact very clearly during Covid. Indeed, the disruption of global trade caused by the disease and efforts to limit its spread probably did more to undermine China’s economic leverage than any foreign leader or policy. Even so, it would be very difficult for Taiwan to mount an effective long-term defense without some form of aid.
I believe that China’s best chance to take Taiwan was in 2023, with the US in turmoil, Japan still passive and South Korea and the Philippines unlikely and/or unable to render effective aid. I think it is likely that the Xi Jinping figured that the Biden Administration, which had greatly weakened American military power and fighting spirit would be followed by an even less capable one, and that is why the PLA did not make its move.
The most likely scenario would have been to create a crisis and then use political influence, information warfare and a show of military force to convince the United States not to get involved. “It’s part of China!” “Why die to protect China from its own territory?” “Our Navy will get sunk by hypersonic missiles!” and other arguments would have been deployed to sway America public opinion and we now know that much of the “peace movement” is financed with Chinese money. There would have been immense street demonstrations to deter military involvement and military leaders would have urged restraint.
Without American support, isolated and alone, Taiwan may well have chosen capitulation to going down fighting, and American assistance would likely have been limited to protecting a new wave of “boat people” fleeing before the Communist occupation.
Instead, we see a revitalized US Navy putting on stunning demonstrations of sustained offensive operations and our Pacific allies have responded accordingly. Japan and South Korea are using their shipbuilding and military/industrial complexes to bolster American defense efforts and also fully equip the Philippines with more modern and effective gear. I’ve seen a report that the RIMPAC exercises this year featured a world-historic joint training exercise between Japanese and Filipino soldiers, something that would once have been unheard of not very long ago. Filipino troops have excellent fighting spirit, a strong martial tradition and are hardened by experience fighting local guerilla and terrorist groups, and they have much to teach their new comrades.
Similarly, the Philippine Navy has tremendous seamanship, but lacks quality vessels. This is now being remedied.
Put simply, American will has caused a tighter and more effective alliance centered around defending Taiwan. Beijing’s best hope is fading fast.
The Fifth Column
Not all Taiwanese wish to remain independent of the mainland. A significant proportion of the population would prefer peaceful reunion with China. How strong this conviction is and what its adherents might do can only be known when the moment arrives. History is replete with traitors opening the city gates or providing crucial information to undermine the defense. This could greatly hamper Taiwan’s efforts at defense. Attacks on the power grid, road blocks and other forms of sabotage could be decisive.
On the other hand, once the battle is joined, the costs of subversion are raised, and the pre-emptive arrest of “subversives” is standard practice throughout history.
An important factor in all of this is the stunning ineptitude currently being displayed by the Mainland’s leadership. The disaster response to multiple typhoons has been terrible, and the crackdown on dissent and religious freedom make the Communist system much less appealing. About a decade ago, China seemed open, friendly and increasingly cosmopolitan with a booming economy. Huge building investments create modern skylines linked by high-speed rail. All of that is now crumbling as China reverts to “Xi Jinping Thought” and “tofu dreg” construction project crumble in to rubble. China no longer seems to be the nation of the future, and the reshoring of American industry is causing massive economic damage that would encompass Taiwan as well should it fall within Beijing’s orbit.
Moreover, the purges within the Chinese Community Party – which are targeting former Xi allies – must also be demoralizing for CCP adherents. The continued crushing of dissent in Hong Kong shows that the “two systems, one country” concept cannot be taken seriously. What’s the point of risking life and limb to ensure a PLA victory when you might be punished by the victors anyway?
Blockade
The most discussed military scenario is not an invasion but rather a blockade by the PLAN and PLAAF. The mechanics are simple: just announce it and move ships around the island. As we saw in the Strait of Hormuz, commercial traffic has little appetite for armed confrontation. This seems like the ultimate low-risk, high-reward strategy because few (if any) shots need to be fired. Again, the example of Iran demonstrates this.
It is true that Taiwan has stockpiled food and essential items against this possibility, but no stockpile can last forever. Eventually the food, fuel, medicine and other critical items will run out, and capitulation will follow.
It is possible that Taiwan may initiate hostilities if this happens, and here again it comes down to stockpiles since Taiwan will be unable to receive replenishment from abroad, and if the shooting starts, Taiwan’s supply stockpiles and infrastructure will by primary targets. It is widely assumed (and regularly wargamed) that the US response would be to escort supply convoys with its carrier strike groups, and that these in turn would be picked apart by land-based hypersonic missiles.
However, here again operations in the Persian Gulf have show that this scenario has several problems. Volleys of hypersonic missiles were sent at American ships without a single hit being scored, and these were at far closer ranges than one would see in the Pacific. Iran had hoped to strangle the world, but instead found itself under a blockade. The same thing could happen to China, because if shipping to Taiwan fears becoming a target, so will shipping to the mainland. China cannot feed itself, and its economy depends on massive exports. If that stops, massive unemployment and starvation would result. The twin pressures of tariffs and “reshoring” are already devastating China’s economy, and many are questioning the legitimacy of the CCP, whose entire claim to rule is based on bringing prosperity to the country.
Given the complexity and extent of its internal security measures, a popular uprising likely would fail, but it would certainly force a diversion of effort from external to internal threats, which have always been more dangerous to Chinese regimes than external actors.
Amphibious Assault
This is the scenario the CCP loves to hype, with dramatic AI-generated propaganda films and elaborately choreographed military drills. The logic is simple: the various branches of the PLA would inundate Taiwan’s defenses, dominating its skies, and sending swarms of ships across the strait to debark countless battalions of highly trained shock troops augmented by robot dogs and other cutting edge technologies. Because it is so complex, this is the scenario I am spending the most time on addressing, and there will be much more to say, so I will leave this unanswered.
Any of these options might work, and of course they are not exclusive. A blockade might embolden the Fifth Column to induce a surrender. A blockade might be the prelude to invasion. The point is that none of them are foolproof, and all have considerable obstacles to their success.
Chateau Lloyd 
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