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Strange doings in the South China Sea

For many years, the Peoples' Republic of China has been asserting control over international waters in the South China Sea.  The various clashes are reminiscent of subs chasing each other in the Cold War or fleets shadowing each other's exercises.

Last week was different.  In the process of chasing a Philippine Coast Guard boat, two Chinese vessels collided with each other, and one of them took serious damage.

Even more remarkable was the fact that the other vessel was a destroyer in the Peoples Liberation Army Navy.  (All defense branches are considered under the PLA, so you have things like the PLAAN and the Peoples Liberation Army Air Force.)

This was the first time a Navy ship was involved.  Was it an escalation?  An attempt to restrain the Coast Guard (which is not under the PLA)?  No one knows, but it underlines the fact that China's greatest threat has always been internal.  Europeans were able to make deep inroads due to China's internal divisions, and when they were resolved, China was able to expel the foreigners quite quickly.

At the same time, China has no mechanism for the peaceful transfer of power.  So far, the Communist Party has managed this, but that was facilitated by a victorious, war-hardened Army, and later by rapid economic development.  

The Old Comrades are dead or retiring, though.  Behind them is a peacetime force of uncertain quality led by generals chosen for their politics rather than their competence.  To prevent a coup, Chinese military organizations are broken up into separate chains of command, which allows rivalries and competing cliques to flourish.

The final element is that Chinese culture places no value on military service, which is a sharp contrast with the West.  Despite a fairly modest establishment relative to its population, the PRC still relies heavily on conscription to fill out its ranks, which typically results in less quality recruits than when one can pick from volunteers.

All of which is to say, I'm feeling pretty good about the continued relevance of Walls of Men.  When I finished it, I had a fear that it might be exposed and require extensive revisions, but so far, it's holding up well.

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